Abstract

Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Highlights

  • Since the 1970s energy crisis, a series of unforeseen and highly visible events have brought energy issues again to the forefront of attention

  • These events were coupled with more gradual systemic developments that have been taking place during the last two decades influencing world energy commodity markets and prices. These include climate change, fears about long-term oil capacity shortages, significant economic growth in Brazil, Russia, India, and China and the discovery and exploitation of non-conventional fossil fuels in North America. While some of these occurrences and developments shed light on the current energy system’s performance, they point to the need for better world energy system analysis and for reconsidering alternative pathways to “business as usual.”

  • The terms “top-down” and “bottom-up” are analytical approaches and shorthand for aggregated and disaggregated models of demand and supply (Markandya and Halsnaes, 2001). While the former are typically developed by economists based on economic indices of prices and elasticities exploring macro-economic effects of a certain type of policy often using econometric methods, the latter are typically developed by engineers based on detailed descriptions of end-use and production technologies and cost structures

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Summary

METHODS

Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario ModelingTool for Transparent Energy SystemThinking. Reviewed by: Yi Zong, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark Marco Aiello, University of Groningen, Netherlands. Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model

INTRODUCTION
Modeling procedure
Findings
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