Rock slope kinematic analysis for planar failure: A probabilistic approach

Ibnu Rusydy,Mulkal Mulkal,Hamzah Hussin,Nafisah Al-Huda,Hendri Ahmadian,Marwan Marwan,Haqul Baramsyah,A Rahman,A Suppasri,I Rusydy,Muksin Muksin,Y Idris,H.A Haridhi,E Mas,T Musa,A Opdyke,E Meilianda

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202234001017

Ibnu Rusydy, Mulkal Mulkal + Show 15 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202234001017

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Abstract

The probabilistic kinematic analysis for rock slope has been conducted on one slope along USAID road in Aceh Province, Indonesia. This research aims to develop the modelled probability density function (PDF) and determine the probabilistic of planar failure occurrence (Pop). The geometry of discontinuity planes (dip and dip directions) and slope geometry (slope angle and slope face) were collected from our previous study. One slope with planar failure criteria was selected. The Monte Carlo simulations were performed in generating 100 new random values in 100 time iterations to produce modelled PDFs for the geometry of discontinuity plans based on statistical parameters of field observed data. The probabilistic of each experimental PDFs were computed to produce the probabilistic of planar failure occurrence. The result reveals that the distribution of dip and dip directions for experimental PDFs are considered Beta and Normal distributions. The statistical parameters produced in the model are almost likely similar to observed data. It means the model that was developed are reliable and conscientious. The rule ofΦ < βj < βsand dip directions (αj) within ±20° to slope face (αs) are utilised as the boundaries to calculate the probabilistic of planar failure occurrence (Pop) which revealing 0.26.

Highlights

Rock slope failure analysis for mining and civil projects has attracted rock engineers to develop numerous methods to analyse the rock slope stability, including the rock slope kinematic analysis, limit equilibrium, numerical modelling, empirical approach, and rock mass classification [1,2,3,4,5]
The type of potential failures determined in the rock slope kinematic approach was based on the stereography interpretation, which has been successfully conducted by numerous researchers [2,5,7]
The dip and dip direction discontinuity planes data were plotted in stereographic projection to determine the number of planes most likely having a similar direction with the slope face, and the dips of planes are higher than friction angle (Ф) but lower than slope angle

Summary

Introduction

Rock slope failure analysis for mining and civil projects has attracted rock engineers to develop numerous methods to analyse the rock slope stability, including the rock slope kinematic analysis, limit equilibrium, numerical modelling, empirical approach, and rock mass classification [1,2,3,4,5]. The type of potential failures determined in the rock slope kinematic approach was based on the stereography interpretation, which has been successfully conducted by numerous researchers [2,5,7]. Their approaches are assumed as a deterministic approach picking the mean values from stereography as a single value. This study aims to develop the modelled probability density function (PDF) and determine the probabilistic of planar failure occurrence (Pop) at USAID highways rock slope in Aceh province, Indonesia

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