Rock fall hazard along the railway corridor to Jerusalem, Israel, in the Soreq and Refaim valleys

Abstract

We evaluate rock fall hazard along the railway corridor to Jerusalem, Israel, in the Soreq and Refaim valleys. For the purpose, we use a combination of historical information on past rock fall events, field surveys aided by the interpretation of aerial photographs, and numerical rock fall modeling. Historical information indicates that on July 11, 1927 an mL 6.2 Dead-Sea transform earthquake caused rock falls in the studied area. The seismically induced rock falls damaged the railway tracks. Field observations revealed that the source area for the 1927 failures was located in the Aminadav formation, at the contact with the Moza formation. At the stratigraphic contact, rock blocks 100–101 m3 in size are formed as a result of tensile stresses and associated fracturing in the dolomite of the Aminadav formation, combined with continuous creep of the blocks on the marl of the underlying Moza formation. We use topographical, geological, and geomorphological information to calibrate a three-dimensional numerical simulation of rock falls in the studied area. We use the results of the numerical modeling, and additional independent information, to assess rock fall hazard and the associated risk in the Soreq and Refaim valleys. Results indicate that in the studied area, rock fall risk to the railway line to Jerusalem is due primarily to Dead-Sea transform earthquakes, with mL > 6. We identify nine sections of the railway line where rock fall risk exists, for a total length of 2.5 km. We further note that seismically induced rock falls can produce damage to the road network in the studied area, make it difficult or impossible for earthquake casualties to reach hospitals in Jerusalem. We conclude offering recommendations on how to mitigate the risk posed by earthquake-induced rock falls in the studied area.