Robustness of storm water management model parameter sets for dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions

Abstract

The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is an urban watershed model for simulating urban runoff quantity and quality. Although SWMM has been widely used, little to no research has explored the effect of fitting the same SWMM dataset to multiple hydrologic conditions. This paper assesses the impact of best-fit parameter estimates on the hydrologic responses of dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions, evaluates parameter uncertainty, and identifies the physical processes that govern parameter changes during dry and wet conditions. We compared the ability of SWMM to predict flows when independently calibrated to a dry and a wet year, respectively, using an automatic calibration program for SWMM, OSTRICH-SWMM (Optimization Software Toolkit for Research Involving Computational Heuristics). The model developed using SWMM calibrated to a wet year performed better during the model assessment period. The best fit estimates of SWMM parameters differed significantly between dry and wet years. For instance, Manning's roughness coefficient for overland flow was higher in a dry year, as less runoff meant less flow depth on surfaces. Some parameters, e.g., % effective imperviousness, exhibited an expanded posterior probability distribution, increasing the uncertainty of the parameter estimate. However, other parameters, such as Manning's roughness coefficient for streams were the least sensitive and well-defined as the width of their posterior distribution only spanned a relatively narrow range which did not change drastically between the two cases. The robust assessment conducted in this study demonstrated that the hydrologic behavior of SWMM was different between models developed and calibrated for dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. The different optimal parameter values suggest that although the processes and mechanisms driving hydrologic processes in dry and wet years are similar, their magnitude differs greatly. This study highlights that precipitation patterns affect the selection of optimal parameter values and the water budgets differed markedly between dry and wet years, as expected. The results of this study can assist urban watershed planners in selecting the most appropriate model to use for prediction purposes or when there is a paucity of data available for model calibration. This study recommends changing SWMM model parameters on an annual basis when projecting the effects of new conditions outside of current experience (i.e., land use and climate change) on urban runoff quantity and quality.