Robust worst-case scenarios from ensemble forecasts

Abstract

AbstractTo extract the most information from an ensemble forecast, users would need to consider the possible impacts of every member in the ensemble. However, not all users have the resources to do this. Many may opt to consider only the ensemble mean and possibly some measure of spread around the mean. This provides little information about potential worst-case scenarios. We explore different methods to extract worst-case scenarios from an ensemble forecast, for a given definition of severity of impact: taking the worst member of the ensemble, calculating the mean of the N worst members, and two methods that use a statistical tool known as directional component analysis (DCA).We assess the advantages and disadvantages of the four methods in terms of whether they produce spatial worst-case scenarios that are not overly sensitive to the finite size and randomness of the ensemble or small changes in the chosen geographical domain. The methods are tested on synthetic data and on temperature forecasts from ECMWF. The mean of the N worst members is more robust than the worst member, while the DCA-based patterns are more robust than either. Furthermore, if the ensemble variability is well-described by the covariance matrix, the DCA patterns have the statistical property that they are just as severe as those from the other two methods, but more likely. We conclude that the DCA approach is a tool that could be routinely applied to extract worst-case scenarios from ensemble forecasts.