Robust UC model based on multi‐band uncertainty set considering the temporal correlation of wind/load prediction errors

Abstract

With the increasing proportion of wind power connected to grid, power system dispatching is facing more and more challenges from uncertainty. To cope with this uncertainty, robust optimization has been applied in unit commitment (UC) problem. In this paper, a multi-band uncertainty set considering the temporal correlation (MBUSCTC) of wind/load prediction error is proposed firstly, which has two characteristics: (1) The MBUSCTC rigorously and realistically reflect the distribution characteristics of uncertainties in uncertainty intervals, thereby effectively reducing the conservatism of the traditional singe-band uncertainty set; (2) the temporal correlation constraints of wind power/load prediction errors in MBUSCTC could limit the realization of uncertainties fluctuating frequently in uncertain intervals, thereby eliminating scenarios with lower probability in uncertainty sets. Then the proposed MBUSCTC is applied to UC problem, leading a robust UC model based on MBUSCTC, which is solved by Benders decomposition method and C&CG method. Finally, case studies based on the modified IEEE-118 bus system and an actual power system of China demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively reduce the conservativeness of the robust UC model and ensure the robustness of the unit commitment solution.