Robust time‐series analysis of the effects of environmental factors on the CoViD‐19 pandemic in the area of Milan (Italy) in the years 2020–21

Abstract

The effects of environmental factors on the spread of the CoViD-19 pandemic have been widely debated in the scientific literature. The results are important for understanding the outbreak dynamics and for defining health measures of prevention and containment. Using multivariate autoregressive (AR) models and robust statistics of causality, this paper analyzes the effect of 19 time series (10 physical and 9 social) on 3 daily CoViD-19 series (infected, hospitalized, deaths) in the Milan area for about 16 months. Robust M-estimation shows the weak effect of climatic and pollution factors, while authority restrictions, people mobility, smart working and vaccination rate have a significant impact. In particular, the vaccination campaign is important for reducing hospitalizations and deaths.