Robust strong lensing time delay estimation

Abstract

Strong gravitational lensing of time variable sources such as quasars and supernovae creates observable time delays between the multiple images. Time delays can provide a powerful cosmographic probe through the ``time-delay distance'' involving the ratio of lens, source, and lens-source distances. However, light curves of lensed images have measurement gaps, noise, systematics such as microlensing from substructure along an image line of sight, and no a priori functional model, making robust time-delay estimation challenging. Using Gaussian process techniques, we demonstrate success in accurate blind reconstruction of time delays and reduction in uncertainties for real data.