Robust Seasonality of Arctic Warming Processes in Two Different Versions of the MIROC GCM

Abstract

Abstract It is one of the most robust projected responses of climate models to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration that the Arctic experiences a rapid warming with a magnitude larger than the rest of the world. While many processes are proposed as important, the relative contribution of individual processes to the Arctic warming is not often investigated systematically. Feedbacks are quantified in two different versions of an atmosphere–ocean GCM under idealized transient experiments based on an energy balance analysis that extends from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. The emphasis is placed on the largest warming from late autumn to early winter (October–December) and the difference from other seasons. It is confirmed that dominating processes vary with season. In autumn, the largest contribution to the Arctic surface warming is made by a reduction of ocean heat storage and cloud radiative feedback. In the annual mean, on the other hand, it is the albedo feedback that contributes the most, with increasing ocean heat uptake to the deeper layers working as a negative feedback. While the qualitative results are robust between the two models, they differ quantitatively, indicating the need for further constraint on each process. Ocean heat uptake, lower tropospheric stability, and low-level cloud response probably require special attention.