Robust regional low-carbon electricity system planning with energy-water nexus under uncertainties and complex policy guidelines

Abstract

Abstract This paper develops an interval multi-stage robust programming model for regional low-carbon electric power system planning with energy-water nexus. The model integrates interval programming and multi-stage stochastic programming to handle uncertainties with different probability distribution information. In addition, under the framework of robust programming, the optimal solutions could provide tradeoff information between system cost and decision maker’s risk preference. The hybrid programming method is tailored for a case study of Shandong Province, China to validate its applicability and provide useful managerial insights, where energy-water interactions are gain great concerns. The model helps to make robust strategies associated with risk control for capacity expansion, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology retrofitting, power generation, imported electricity, and water allocation for electricity generation, with the goal of minimizing total cost. Besides, considering the variation of water resource conditions and environmental policies under climate change, the impacts of water resource availability and carbon emission caps on regional electric power system planning are explored and discussed. It is found that stricter carbon emission cap policy would facilitate the investment on CCS devices but have little impact on the installed capacity structure, meanwhile it would increase water consumption per power generation. However, scarcer water resource situation would promote the development of renewable energy generation, and limit the investment on CCS technology.