Abstract
Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.
Highlights
Coral reef ecosystems are among the most biodiverse on earth, described as “rainforests of the sea” [1]
The results presented here reinforce the previous finding of a key refuge in the south Pacific around French Polynesia [28], which is repeatedly predicted as a suitable coral reef habitat in future climate scenarios
This study utilized earth system model projections from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CESM-1 biogeochemistry runs in conjunction with the species distribution algorithm Maxent to determine which Pacific coral reef regions are pre-conditioned to future oceanic habitats, and which will experience a high degree of change in their oceanic habitat
Summary
Coral reef ecosystems are among the most biodiverse on earth, described as “rainforests of the sea” [1]. They provide many ecosystem services, including coastal protection, recreation and tourism, new substances used by the pharmaceutical industry, and natural beauty [2,3]. Tens of millions of people depend on coral reefs for protein and livelihood in coastal nations [4]. The ability of coral reefs to persist in the century is under threat from both climate change and human stress. Coral reefs face an even greater threat from climate change. Two consequences of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) have been well
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