Robust Design Simulation: A Probabilistic Approach to Multidisciplinary Design

Abstract

Most current paradigms in multidisciplinary design analysis and optimization fail to address the presence of uncertainty at numerous levels of the design hierarchy and over the design process time line. Consequently, the issue of robustness of the design is neglected. An approach for the determination of robust design solutions is outlined in this paper, where uncertainty is quantified and its effects mitigated. The robust solution is found through maximization of the probability of an overall figure of merit achieving or exceeding a specified target. The proposed methodology is referred to as robust design simulation (RDS). Arguments as to why a probabilistic approach to aircraft design is preferable over the traditional deterministic approaches are presented, along with a step-by-step description of how one could implement the RDS. An application involving the high-speed civil transport is conducted as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method and to introduce an evaluation criterion that guarantees the highest customer satisfaction.