Robust design optimization of a multi-body system with aleatory and epistemic uncertainty

Abstract

There are several issues in robust design optimization of the multi-body system with aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, such as the difficulty in the multi-source uncertainty characterization and low efficiency in dynamic modeling, analysis and the corresponding solving strategy for its robust design optimization. To address these problems, this paper firstly constructs a unified analysis framework for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty for the multi-body system based on probability theory and evidence theory. Taking a multi-body system of a shipborne artillery model as an example, the transfer matrix method is next employed to rapidly calculate the dynamic response of the muzzle. The results are compared with those by the finite element method to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the transfer matrix method. A decision model of the robust design optimization with both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty is proposed. Based on the polynomial chaos expansion-Kriging model, subset simulation optimization method and a weighted single-objective solving strategy, the multi-objective robust design optimization problem involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty is then transformed into a single-objective optimization one. Finally, results of both the multi-objective and weighted single-objective robust design optimization methods for the shipborne artillery model are compared to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.