Abstract
Bayesian decision analysis is a useful method for risk management decisions, but is limited in its ability to consider severe uncertainty in knowledge, and value ambiguity in management objectives. We study the use of robust Bayesian decision analysis to handle problems where one or both of these issues arise. The robust Bayesian approach models severe uncertainty through bounds on probability distributions, and value ambiguity through bounds on utility functions. To incorporate data, standard Bayesian updating is applied on the entire set of distributions. To elicit our expert's utility representing the value of different management objectives, we use a modified version of the swing weighting procedure that can cope with severe value ambiguity. We demonstrate these methods on an environmental management problem to eradicate an alien invasive marmorkrebs recently discovered in Sweden, which needed a rapid response despite substantial knowledge gaps if the species was still present (i.e., severe uncertainty) and the need for difficult tradeoffs and competing interests (i.e., value ambiguity). We identify that the decision alternatives to drain the system and remove individuals in combination with dredging and sieving with or without a degradable biocide, or increasing pH, are consistently bad under the entire range of probability and utility bounds. This case study shows how robust Bayesian decision analysis provides a transparent methodology for integrating information in risk management problems where little data are available and/or where the tradeoffs are ambiguous.
Highlights
IntroductionEnvironmental risk managers must often make decisions under uncertainty, especially under multiple objectives (Institute of Medicine, 2013)
We study a way to deal with severe uncertainty both in values and in system knowledge by bounding probability distributions and utility functions
We demonstrated the use of robust Bayesian decision analysis to solve a risk management problem under severe uncertainty and value ambiguity
Summary
Environmental risk managers must often make decisions under uncertainty, especially under multiple objectives (Institute of Medicine, 2013). To take this uncertainty into consideration, uncertainty must be characterized, assessed, and conveyed (Fischhoff & Davis, 2014). Marmorkrebs is an nonindigenous invasive species that has recently established in Europe (Chucholl, Morawetz, & Gross, 2012). It reproduces by cloning (Jones et al, 2009), and marmorkrebs constitute a high risk of bringing new disease vectors, and competition with native crayfish, which are already threatened. Illegal activities occur and marmorkrebs could be released into the wild
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