Robust combination rules for evidence theory

Abstract

Dempster’s rule of combination in evidence theory is a powerful tool for reasoning under uncertainty. Since Zadeh highlighted the counter-intuitive behaviour of Dempster’s rule, a plethora of alternative combination rules have been proposed. In this paper, we propose a general formulation for combination rules in evidence theory as a weighted sum of the conjunctive and disjunctive rules. Moreover, with the aim of automatically accounting for the reliability of sources of information, we propose a class of robust combination rules (RCR) in which the weights are a function of the conflict between two pieces of information. The interpretation given to the weight of conflict between two BPAs is an indicator of the relative reliability of the sources: if the conflict is low, then both sources are reliable, and if the conflict is high, then at least one source is unreliable. We show some interesting properties satisfied by the RCRs, such as positive belief reinforcement or the neutral impact of vacuous belief, and establish links with other classes of rules. The behaviour of the RCRs over non-exhaustive frames of discernment is also studied, as the RCRs implicitly perform a kind of automatic deconditioning through the simple use of the disjunctive operator. We focus our study on two special cases: (1) RCR-S, a rule with symmetric coefficients that is proved to be unique and (2) RCR-L, a rule with asymmetric coefficients based on a logarithmic function. Their behaviours are then compared to some classical combination rules proposed thus far in the literature, on a few examples, and on Monte Carlo simulations.