Abstract
The semiconductor industry is known for its use of ‘road-maps’ to guide innovation strategies, especially as regards the application of Moore's Law to silicon. However, the history of gallium arsenide highlights a limitation of such an approach. Road-mapping works best for technologies in which technical progress is incremental, and for which applications are predictable. However, gallium arsenide's development did not follow a predictable path. Often touted as the semiconductor of the future because of its potential for high speed computing, gallium arsenide remained a niche technology for many years until a number of consumer applications were developed. If, as occurred with gallium arsenide, the key commercial applications (such as mobile phones, satellite TV, and CD and DVD players) could not be predicted, then a road-map could provide little guidance for investment.
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