Road freight transportation in a period of economic instability: A panel data study in four EU Mediterranean countries

Abstract

For the majority of EU member countries, but especially those of the South i.e., Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, the last decade was characterised by a period of negative economic growth and general instability of their economies. During that period, the four countries faced significant changes to the output of several economic sectors, a development that has affected freight transportation in many ways. This paper examines the impacts that this economic environment had on road freight transport output. It aims to, first, analyse the trends and variations of several freight transport indicators and compare them to economic indicators that express the state of the economy in each of the four countries. Secondly, to create mathematical relations between these freight transport and economic indicators by analysing a number of panel data gathered over a period of 15 years from 2005 to 2019. Our results indicated that the “traditional”, relationship between the GDP and road freight transport performance for national and international operations seems to hold for Greece, Spain, and Portugal with positive elasticities but negative in the case of Italy (an anomaly that may indicate the start of decoupling or other deeper economic and social reasons). Further analysis revealed correlations with the index of production in the manufacturing sector, indicating the countries' low sensitivity to changes of the economic sector. This is also valid for the relationship with the countries' exporting activity, revealing the differences between the four countries in their export trade, i.e., different degrees of commodification, types of exported goods, or on trading with particular destination partners.