Road Fatality Model Based on Over-Dispersion Data Along Federal Route F0050

Wan Zahidah Musa,Zaffan Farhana Zainal,Joewono Prasetijo,M.J Zainorizuan,L Yee Yong,A Mohd Shalahuddin,O Mohamad Hanifi,L Alvin John Meng Siang,R Siti Nazahiyah

doi:10.1051/matecconf/201710308012

Wan Zahidah Musa, Zaffan Farhana Zainal + Show 7 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201710308012

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Abstract

According to The World Health Ranking 2011 has ranked Malaysia as 20 th in its list of countries with the most deaths caused by road accidents. Road accidents also have been identified as the prime cause of death in Malaysia after the heart disease, stroke, influenza and pneumonia. To date, previous researches from Malaysian Institute of Road Safety (MIROS) have reported that averages of 18 people were killed on Malaysian road daily. There are many kinds of models that have been developed in modelling the circumstance of accidents. The most widely applied was Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models while Zeroinflated Poisson and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial are the modification of Poisson and Negative Binomials regression models. This study interested to focus on road F0050 as statistic data from Royal Malaysian Police 2014 list F0050 as one of the high accident road in Malaysia from kilometre 0 until kilometre 58. R programming was chose to analyse the relationship between road fatality and its factor (annual average daily traffic (AADT), speed, shoulder width, lane width). Negative binomial and Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) were shown to be preferred modelling methods for this study. Significant positive relationships were also identified between road fatality and annual average daily traffic (AADT) and lane width. This relationship can be a helpful support to the decision making of accident management for road F0050.

Highlights

Traffic accidents have been recognized as one of the major causes for human and economic losses both in developed and developing countries
Traffic accidents represent a significant cost for the Malaysian society which based on a willingness-to-pay estimation, traffic crashes cost each year around 1.6% of the national gross domestic product
While for the variables average daily traffic (AADT) (LN.AADT) and lane width (LW) have majorly positive association with the accident. These results suggest that there is preliminary evidence that in route F0050 with too many access points with increase of average annual daily traffic (AADT) have more contribution to fatality crashes

Summary

Introduction

Traffic accidents have been recognized as one of the major causes for human and economic losses both in developed and developing countries. MIROS present a comprehensive review on the absence of a comprehensive road safety programme, there would be 8760 road fatalities in 2015 and 10716 in the year 2020 based on their 2015 annual report This shows an effective reduction of 22% in the number of road fatalities when compared to 2010 level. The main issue in need of future effort is the reliability test of some statistical models (Poisson, Negative Binomial and Zero Inflated) in yielding better results in traffic safety. These types of model have been well coordinated in many other fields such as economics and sociology, it is only less than 10 years when traffic safety analysts first reported relevant results in well-known publications. This study is the new approach of quantifying road safety performance at the heterogeneous traffic conditions at route F0050

Route F0050

Stochastic Regression Models

Results and discussion

Conclusions