Abstract
This summary of the author’s PhD thesis defended on 20 December 2012 at the Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. The thesis is written in Lithuanian and is available from the author upon request. Chapter 1 describes the analysis of road infrastructure safety management procedures and their implementation. Chapter 2 gives the overview of accident prediction models and the principles of their development. Chapter 3 presents the designed accident prediction algorithm for the roads of national significance of Lithuania, the developed mathematical accident prediction models for homogenous groups of roads and junctions, the implemented network safety ranking and the determined road sections with a potentially high accident concentration. Chapter 4 describes the testing and analysis of software intended for the implementation of accident prediction algorithm.
Highlights
Topicality of the problem Improvement of safety on roads still remains a priority field both in Lithuania and other European Union (EU) countries
The junctions of the road network of national significance of Lithuania were classified into 14 homogenous groups (Fig. 4) which are made of 1454 junctions
To reduce the number of accidents and to mitigate accident severity it is necessary to carry out road network safety ranking, to determine the potentially dangerous road sections in respect of road safety and namely on them to implement safety improvement measures giving the highest effect
Summary
Topicality of the problem Improvement of safety on roads still remains a priority field both in Lithuania and other European Union (EU) countries. Practical value The suggested tools for implementing road infrastructure management procedures – road safety impact assessment and road network safety ranking – will allow to predict in advance the number of road accidents on the roads of national significance of Lithuania, to implement the preventive safety improvement measures and to avoid black spots, i.e. high accident concentration sites: 1. To rationally use the limited financial resources for improving safety on roads, the safety improvement measures shall be implemented on the potentially dangerous sections of the road network, i.e. those sections where the largest accident number is predicted, and those sections where it is possible with the lowest costs to achieve the largest reduction in accident number For this purpose, when designing new roads or preparing road reconstruction projects the solutions, related to road infrastructure parameters and engineering safety improvement measures, that are taken on the newly designed roads should prevent the occurrence of road accidents or reduce their number as much as possible, and on the roads undergoing reconstruction ‒ should reduce the number of accidents and mitigate their severity. To solve these problems the accident prediction models should be used which would enable to determine the potentially dangerous road sections and to predict accident number if no engineering safety improvement measures are implemented, as well as to determine the predicted number of accidents after implementation of one or another selected measure
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