Abstract

The source parameters and dimensions of the tow strongest earthquakes (July 1, 1829, Io = VII-VIII EMS; October 15, 1834, Io = IX EMS) in Ermellek area are estimated as follows Date of the event Focal depth Magnitude Rupture area Max. displacement July 01, 1829 21-33 km 5.5-5.7 33-55 km2 11-16 cm October 15, 1834 23-28 km 6.5-6.6 266-358 km2 74-90 cm The average recurrence that we may expect an earthquake of M ≥ 0.7 every 1 year, an earthquake of M ≥ 2.9 every 10 years and an earthquake of M ≥ 5.0 every 100 years in this source zone. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment predicts 1.1-1.4 m/cm2 peak ground accelerations, and 6.3-7.4 maximum (theoretical) earthquake intensity values with 10 % chance of exceedance for an exposure time of 100 years in the area.

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