River ice responses to a warming Arctic—recent evidence from Russian rivers

A I Shiklomanov,R B Lammers

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/035008

Abstract

This paper looks at the response of river ice to recent warming in the Arctic at six major downstream gauges on large Russian rivers flowing to the Arctic Ocean. For the Severnaya Dvina, Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Yana and Kolyma we determine how river ice has changed in recent years and we try to understand the underlying causes of those changes. Long-term variability and trends in beginning and ending dates of ice events, duration of ice conditions, and maximum ice thickness were analyzed over 1955–2012. Significant changes in timing of ice events and a decrease in ice thickness were found for the five Siberian rivers. Duration of ice conditions decreased from 7 days for the Severnaya Dvina, Lena and Yenisey to almost 20 days for the Ob at Salekhard. The change in timing of ice events is consistent with changes in regional air temperature, which has significantly increased at each of these river gauges, except Lena-Kusur. The primary cause of the considerable increase in maximum ice thickness was not identified. Variation of mean winter air temperature and river discharge do not correlate well with maximum ice thickness and it is assumed the influence of specific local conditions can play a more important role in ice formation at these locations. Understanding this interrelationship across the Eurasian pan-Arctic using more comprehensive data archives for river ice and discharge is therefore needed.

Highlights

There is ample evidence showing the entire Arctic system is changing (Jeffries et al 2012, Vaughan et al 2013, AMAP 2011, ACIA 2005) and in terms of reductions in snow cover (Brown and Robinson 2011), intensifying spring melt (Bulygina et al 2011a) and increasing river flow (Shiklomanov and Lammers 2009) the northern hydrological cycle is no exception
This paper looks at the response of river ice to recent warming in the Arctic at six major downstream gauges on large Russian rivers flowing to the Arctic Ocean
In this paper we look at the Russian river ice regime and how it has changed in recent years and we try to understand the underlying causes of those changes

Summary

Introduction

There is ample evidence showing the entire Arctic system is changing (Jeffries et al 2012, Vaughan et al 2013, AMAP 2011, ACIA 2005) and in terms of reductions in snow cover (Brown and Robinson 2011), intensifying spring melt (Bulygina et al 2011a) and increasing river flow (Shiklomanov and Lammers 2009) the northern hydrological cycle is no exception. Variability in climate and the environment is normal, where that change intensifies, accelerates, or intersects with human activity the level of concern rises appreciably. One of those intersections is the occurrence of ice on large rivers. Where changes can have immediate consequences for navigation, transport, erosion, subsistence, construction works, ice bridges, and the local and regional economies. Understanding ice characteristics, including dates of ice events, ice thickness and their variability is critical for these high latitude regions. In this paper we look at the Russian river ice regime and how it has changed in recent years and we try to understand the underlying causes of those changes

Data and methods

Results

Discussion and conclusions