River flow control on the phytoplankton dynamics of Chesapeake Bay

Abstract

Recent observations support an emerging paradigm that climate variability dominates nutrient enrichment in costal ecosystems, which can explain seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton community composition, biomass (Chl-a), and primary production (PP). In this paper, we combined observation and modeling to investigate the regulation of phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay. The year we chose is 1996 that has high river runoff and is usually called a ‘wet year’. A 3-D physical-biogeochemical model based on ROMS was developed to simulate the seasonal cycle and the regional distributions of phytoplankton biomass and primary production in Chesapeake Bay. Based on the model results, NO3 presents a strong contrast to the river nitrate load during spring and the highest concentration in the bay reaches around 80 mmol N m−3. Compared with the normal year, phytoplankton bloom in spring of 1996 appears in lower latitudes with a higher concentration. Quantitative comparison between the modeled and observed seasonal averaged dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations shows that the model produces reliable results. The correlation coefficient r2 for all quantities exceeds 0.95, and the skill parameter for the four seasons is all above 0.95.