Abstract
The global pandemic has transformed everyday life into a series of decisions about risk. I have a friend who, in the month after San Francisco issued its order to shelter in place, was too scared to leave his small apartment except to take two short walks. He's not alone. The possibility of contracting Covid-19 is terrifying. But if the fear leads my friend to hide at home for a year or more without going out, that will probably be an overreaction. People are often systematically underconfident and don't take chances that would be successful. We may stay home when it's safe to go outside (provided we maintain a safe distance from others, wear a mask, and so forth). Likewise, post-pandemic, we may decline to talk to strangers who might turn into friends or avoid investments that could pay off handsomely. Our children may avoid entering an essay contest or decline a more challenging math class, either because they lowball their odds of succeeding or exaggerate the consequences of failing.
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