RISKS SOURCES AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES IN POULTRY (EGG) PRODUCTION IN THE AGRARIAN COMMUNITIES OF LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Poultry farming provides rich source of animal protein and contributes significantly to food security among Nigeria households. However, the poultry sector is largely vulnerable to risk conditions, ranging from natural events, climate disturbances, and human lapses resulting in tumultuous performances of the poultry enterprise. This study was carried out in the agrarian suburb of Lagos State, Nigeria to determine the dominant risk sources in the poultry egg sector, and the determinants of mitigation strategy adoption among egg farmers. Primary data were obtained in a crosssectional survey of 125 poultry egg farmers drawn by multi-stage random sampling across major communities in the study area, and were analysed by both descriptive and quantitative techniques. A risk behavioural model (RBM) was used to estimate the determinants of farmers’ adoption of specific mitigation strategies. From the findings, 62% of the respondents were male, married (64%), formally educated (74%), and of mean age and household size 40 ± 15 years and 4 ± 2 persons, respectively. Average farmer’s flock size was 524 ± 327 layers, 6 ± 5 average years of farming experience, and average gross income of N1,490,000/production cycle. The identified risk factors (response scores and survival propensities in parentheses) were; disease epidemic shocks (1.82, 44.67%); egg glut shocks (1.85, 39%); adverse weather shocks (2.01, 53%); and input price instability shocks (2.21, 60%). Identified lead risk mitigation strategies were strict adherence to routine vaccination regime; advance egg sales arrangement; proper timing/frequency of bird stocking, and advance/wholesale inputs purchase arrangements. Findings from the study established that medically disenfranchised (2.974; p<0.01) and non-remotely located farms (1.682 p><0.1) had higher propensity for routine vaccination/drugs administration to mitigate disease outbreak. Likewise, experienced farmers (2.780; p><0.01) operating farms with less capital-based assets (2.655; p><0.01) would more likely adopt advance sales arrangement to mitigate egg glut shock. With better human skills development (2.173; p><0.05), poultry farmers would likely engage proper timing for birds stocking to mitigate the effect of adverse weather condition on their farms. To enhance farmers’ timely access to major inputs (feeds, drugs and stocks) for a sustainable poultry egg industry in the study area, localisation of farms within policy-regulated areas and proximity to input supply firms were recommended.