Risks and Impact Assessment for Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Resources

Abstract

Abstract Recent natural and anthropogenic events, such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, have identified significant gaps in our ability to predict risks associated with offshore hydrocarbon production as well as our capabilities to respond to deleterious events of varying scope, magnitude, and duration. As offshore hydrocarbon development in the Gulf of Mexico continues to push into new territory, there is a need to develop computational tools that enable the rapid prediction of outcomes associated with unexpected hydrocarbon release events from deepwater and ultra-deepwater systems in the Gulf of Mexico. To date, no comprehensive system-wide tool exists that can simulate the complexities of engineered-natural systems and provide the baseline data that is required to drive the simulations. To address this gap, we are developing the Gulf of Mexico Integrated Assessment Model (GOM IAM), the first coordinated platform that will allow for independent, rapid-response, and science based predictions providing the capabilities to assess risks and potential impacts associated with deep and ultra-deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. This predictive model and its analyses allow for the assessment and quantification of risks and environmental impacts from deepwater and ultra-deepwater oil and gas drilling and production, as well as provide a robust tool and database that can provide crucial information necessary for the response and recovery following future loss of control events. Once the GOM IAM is developed, it can be utilize to:identify potential risks;identify technology gaps,improve our understanding of the degree of uncertainty relative to key systems and interactions associated with deep and ultra-deep water offshore hydrocarbon development to promote safer development and operations, and iv) run scenarios to serve as a baseline rapid response tool for any future oil spill events.