Riskier than we thought: revised estimates of women at risk for unintended pregnancy

Abstract

Introduction: ���At risk for unintended pregnancy��� is defined as sexually active women who are noncontracepting, but do not desire a pregnancy. We recalculated statistics measuring this from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) data. The published NSFG definition includes sterilized women and women relying on partner sterilization in the denominator of the ���at risk��� statistic. However, this inclusion skews the percentages of women ���at risk��� to appear smaller than is realistic since these women face a minimal risk of pregnancy.Materials and Methods: To obtain a more realistic estimate, we removed all sterilized women or women relying on partner sterilization from the ���at risk��� denominator. The numerator of noncontracepting, sexually active women remained the same. We recalculated the proportion of ���at risk��� women for various age groups, ethnic groups and marital status.Results: Using the 2002 NSFG definition, women at risk for unintended pregnancy increased from 5.4% in 1995 to 7.4% in 2002. Using the alternative definition, the proportion of women at risk was 12.76% in 2002. The revised proportions are higher than with the NSFG estimates in all groups, with the exception of teenagers who remained constant, because virtually no teen relies on sterilization for contraception. Increases ranged from 0.6% to 12.1%, with the greatest increase seen among formerly married and older women.Conclusion: These results indicate that published NSFG percentages of adult women at risk of unintended pregnancy are too low universally and underestimate the risk for groups thought previously to be at lower risk. Introduction: ���At risk for unintended pregnancy��� is defined as sexually active women who are noncontracepting, but do not desire a pregnancy. We recalculated statistics measuring this from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) data. The published NSFG definition includes sterilized women and women relying on partner sterilization in the denominator of the ���at risk��� statistic. However, this inclusion skews the percentages of women ���at risk��� to appear smaller than is realistic since these women face a minimal risk of pregnancy. Materials and Methods: To obtain a more realistic estimate, we removed all sterilized women or women relying on partner sterilization from the ���at risk��� denominator. The numerator of noncontracepting, sexually active women remained the same. We recalculated the proportion of ���at risk��� women for various age groups, ethnic groups and marital status. Results: Using the 2002 NSFG definition, women at risk for unintended pregnancy increased from 5.4% in 1995 to 7.4% in 2002. Using the alternative definition, the proportion of women at risk was 12.76% in 2002. The revised proportions are higher than with the NSFG estimates in all groups, with the exception of teenagers who remained constant, because virtually no teen relies on sterilization for contraception. Increases ranged from 0.6% to 12.1%, with the greatest increase seen among formerly married and older women. Conclusion: These results indicate that published NSFG percentages of adult women at risk of unintended pregnancy are too low universally and underestimate the risk for groups thought previously to be at lower risk.