Risk-adjustment models for breast, lung, and colorectal cancer cost, utilization, and outcomes in a commercially insured population.

Abstract

e18340 Background: Advances in oncology have led to rising costs which are unsustainable, necessitating value-based arrangements that maximize quality and overall outcomes. Our objective was to identify clinical and patient factors that predict higher costs and utilization among breast, lung, and colorectal cancer in a commercial population. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal analysis of claims in a sample of 9,748 commercially insured patients with breast, lung, and colorectal cancer, to measure costs and utilization based on presence of metastases, proxies for clinical biomarkers, patient demographics, and treatments. Results: Episode Risk Group (ERG) risk score, metastasis, and facility provider affiliation were cost drivers for all three types of cancer (breast, lung, and colorectal). Hypertension and younger age were cost drivers for breast cancer. In addition, HER2 positive status (β = 68,946, SE = 2,104, p < .0001) was significant in breast cancer, and VEGF in both lung (β = 56,975, SE = 10,138, p < .0001) and colorectal (β = 24,400, SE = 5,671, p < .0001) cancers. Metastasis also was associated with greater hospital admissions and hospital length of stay in all three cancers. Chemotherapy and supportive drug therapies accounted for the highest proportions of total medical costs among beneficiaries observed. Conclusions: Value-based reimbursement models in oncology should appropriately risk adjust by accounting for key cost drivers. Although claims-based methodologies may be further augmented with clinical data, we recommend adjusting for the factors we identified in models to predict costs and outcomes in breast, lung, and colorectal cancers.