Abstract
Abstract. In this paper, typhoon simply means tropical cyclone. As risk is future probability of hazard events, when estimated future probability is the same as historical probability for a specific period, we can understand risk by learning from past events. Based on precipitation and wind data over the mainland of China during 1980–2014 and disaster and social data at the county level in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2012, a study on risk zoning of typhoon disasters (typhoon disasters in this paper refer to affected population or direct economic losses caused by typhoons in Zhejiang Province) is carried out. Firstly, characteristics of typhoon disasters and factors causing typhoon disasters are analyzed. Secondly, an intensity index of factors causing typhoon disasters and a population vulnerability index are developed. Thirdly, combining the two indexes, a comprehensive risk index for typhoon disasters is obtained and used to zone areas of risk. The above analyses show that southeastern Zhejiang is the area most affected by typhoon disasters. The annual probability of the occurrence of typhoon rainstorms >50 mm decreases from the southeast coast to inland areas, with a maximum in the boundary region between Fujian and Zhejiang, which has the highest risk of rainstorms. Southeastern Zhejiang and the boundary region between Zhejiang and Fujian provinces and the Hangzhou Bay area are most frequently affected by extreme typhoon winds and have the highest risk of wind damage. The population of southwestern Zhejiang is the most vulnerable to typhoons as a result of the relatively undeveloped economy, mountainous terrain and the high risk of geological disasters in this region. Vulnerability is lower in the cities due to better disaster prevention and reduction strategies and a more highly educated population. The southeast coastal areas face the highest risk of typhoon disasters, especially in the boundary region between Taizhou and Wenzhou cities. Although the inland mountainous areas are not directly affected by typhoons, they are in the medium-risk category for vulnerability.
Highlights
Typhoon, which means tropical cyclone in this paper, often causes some of the most serious natural disasters in China, with an average annual direct economic loss of about USD 9 billion
It would be of practical significance to develop a system for the risk assessment of typhoon disasters in Zhejiang Province
The objective synoptic analysis technique (OSAT) is needed to identify typhoon wind and precipitation from a wider range than just Zhejiang Province; 2419 stations of precipitation data and 2479 stations of wind data over mainland China are used, 71 stations of which correspond to counties in Zhejiang Province
Summary
Typhoon, which means tropical cyclone in this paper, often causes some of the most serious natural disasters in China, with an average annual direct economic loss of about USD 9 billion. Y. Lu et al.: Risk zoning of typhoon disasters in Zhejiang Province, China and higher economic losses. Evaluation indexes for the assessment of disaster losses were established based on the number of deaths, direct economic losses, the area of crops affected and the number of collapsed houses. These indexes were used to construct different disaster assessment models (Liang and Fan, 1999; Lei et al, 2009; Wang et al, 2010). Few studies have focused on a comprehensive risk assessment of typhoon disasters coupled with factors causing typhoon disasters and population vulnerability.
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