Risk Warning System of Market Power Monitoring in Electricity Market

Abstract

The electricity market is involved in a large number of stakeholders, the risk is complex, and the market power will exacerbate the crisis after openness of the electricity market. If regulators can build the electricity market risk warning system in advance, they can detect risk signals in advance and take effective measures to avoid electricity power crisis. This paper focuses on building the electricity market power risk warning system. Thus, we firstly establish a set of indicators that can reflect the electricity market risk condition scientifically, and then estimate the threshold value of risk indicators by using the VaR method based on GARCH model. The risk warning system with five levels of signals is proposed by using the estimated VaR values of the indicator under different confidence, and it is validated to be feasible and effective. Finally, some measures are proposed to respond to different types of risk warning.