Risk Stratification and Transplant Benefit in Children Listed for Heart Transplant in the United States

Abstract

The sickest children among those listed for heart transplant (HT) are also at higher risk of post-transplant mortality. We hypothesized that transplant benefit, defined as percentage reduction in risk of 1-year mortality on receiving HT, increases with higher risk of wait-list mortality. We analyzed all children aged <18 years listed for first HT in the United States between July 2004 and December 2010. We developed a model for 90-day wait-list mortality (or removal because of deterioration) and stratified listed children into deciles based on their risk of wait-list mortality. Listed children were followed up for 1 year to assess cumulative 1-year wait-list mortality among the 10 risk groups. We developed a model for 1-year post-transplant mortality to estimate the risk of post-transplant mortality for children in each risk group. Of 2979 listed children, 15% reached the wait-list end point within 90 days and 18% within 1 year. Of 2034 HT recipients, 6.8% died within 90 days and 10.8% within 1 year. The risk of 90-day wait-list mortality increased progressively from 2.4% to 51.6% from the first to the tenth risk decile. Transplant benefit increased progressively across the wait-list risk groups (P<0.001 for trend). However, transplant benefit for children in the top 5% of risk (7.4%) was lower than that for children in the 91st to 95th percentile of risk (10.3%). Sicker children on the wait-list benefit more from HT unless the post-transplant mortality is predicted to be very high. Whether consideration of transplant benefit in allocation policy can improve overall survival among listed children requires further analysis.