Risk spillovers and hedge strategies between global crude oil markets and stock markets: Do regime switching processes combining long memory and asymmetry matter?

Abstract

This paper investigates risk spillovers and hedge strategies between global crude oil markets and stock markets. In the paper, we propose a multivariate long memory and asymmetry GARCH framework that integrates state-dependent regime switching in the mean process with multivariate long memory and asymmetry GARCH in the variance process. Our results first show that there are linear risk spillovers running from the US stock markets to the WTI oil market in the short term. However, the linear risk spillover effect running from the oil market to the US stock market can only exist in the long term. In addition, there is a bidirectional linear risk spillover effect between the European stock markets and the Brent oil market in the short and long terms. Furthermore, there is no linear risk spillover effect between the Dubai oil market and the Chinese stock market. Second, the nonlinear risk spillovers running from the WTI oil market to the US stock market can be found in the tranquil regime. Moreover, there is also a nonlinear risk spillover effect running from the European stock markets to the Brent oil market in the tranquil regime. In addition, the nonlinear risk spillover effect running from the Brent oil markets to the European stock market can be found in the crisis regime. Furthermore, there is bidirectional nonlinear Granger causality between the Dubai crude oil market and the Chinese stock market in the tranquil regime. Finally, dynamic hedge effectiveness shows that the regime switching process combined with long memory and asymmetry behavior seems to be a plausible and feasible way to conduct hedge strategies between the global crude oil markets and stock markets.