Risk Simulation of Urban Rainstorm Flood Disasters Considering Crowd Activities

Abstract

Social activities have a significant impact on the rainstorm flood disaster risk. It is crucial to explore the dynamic changes of urban rainstorm flood disaster risk caused by crowd activities. In this study, a risk simulation method of urban rainstorm flood disasters is proposed, composed of an urban rainstorm flood model based on SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP and a crowd activities model based on ABM. Taking the Futian District of Shenzhen as an example, the temporal and spatial changes in rainstorm flood disaster risk for buildings and roads are analyzed under three scenarios: midnight, morning peak, and evening peak. The results show that: (1) Although the overall risk of urban rainstorm flood disasters increases as the inundation area expands, the average risks of roads and buildings increase rapidly and then stabilize during the morning peak due to commuting activities, while the average risk of roads remains high level during the evening peak due to commuting activities, while; (2) The risk of urban rainstorm flood varies significantly at different time periods. The average risk of buildings is the largest during the morning peak, about twice that during the evening peak. The number of high-risk roads during the evening peak is much higher than in the morning peak, and both buildings and roads have the least risk during midnight; (3) The spatial distribution of urban rainstorm flood disaster risk changes with the crowd activities, shifting from residential areas to industrial areas, schools, shopping malls, etc., during the morning peak, while the evening peak shows the reverse.