Risk scores in cirrhotic patients: From non-transplant surgery to transplantation and back

Abstract

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) predicts nontransplant surgical mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Northup PG, Wanamaker RC, Lee VD, Adams RB, Berg CL. Objective We sought to determine the ability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to predict 30-day postoperative mortality for patients with cirrhosis undergoing nontransplant surgical procedures. Summary background data The Child-Pugh class historically has been used by clinicians to assist in management decisions involving patients with cirrhosis. However, this classification scheme has a number of limitations. Recently, MELD was introduced. It has been shown to be highly predictive of mortality in a variety of clinical scenarios. Methods Adult patients with a diagnosis of cirrhosis undergoing nontransplant surgical procedures between January 1, 1996, and January 1, 2002, at a single center were analyzed. The preoperative MELD score was calculated for all patients, and the MELD's performance in predicting 30-day mortality was determined using multivariate regression techniques. Results A total of 140 surgical procedures were identified and analyzed. The 30-day mortality rate was 16.4%. The mean admission MELD score for the patients who died (23.3, 95% confidence interval 19.6-27.0) was significantly different from those patients surviving beyond 30 days (16.9, 15.6-18.2), P=0.0003. The c-statistic for MELD score predicting 30-day mortality was 0.72. Further subgroup analysis of 67 intra-abdominal surgeries showed an in-hospital mortality of 23.9%. The mean MELD score for patients dying (24.8, 20.4-29.3) was significantly different from survivors (16.2, 14.2-18.2), P=0.0001. The c-statistic for this subgroup was 0.80. Conclusions The MELD score, as an objective scale of disease severity in patients with cirrhosis, shows promise as being a useful preoperative predictor of surgical mortality risk. [Abstract reproduced by permission of Ann Surg 2005;242:244-51]