Risk, rule and reason: leadership in Africa

Abstract

AbstractWhy are most African countries poorly led? This article looks at the question from the perspective of political economy, considering leaders to be individuals who respond rationally to incentives created by their environment. Critical is the level of risk, which can encourage leaders to pursue short‐term, economically destructive policies. Using a new database of national leadership transitions in Africa since 1960, the article demonstrates that the risks of office holding are very high in the region. It also finds that African countries where leaders face less risk tend to have more open economic regimes and to have lower levels of perceived political corruption, as predicted by political economy theory. Because it makes the political environment less perilous, democratization in the region holds out some hope for encouraging leaders to govern with an eye to longer‐term results. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.