Risk response over time: political compartmentalization of terrorism risk perception

Abstract

Societal threats are a growing concern in European democracies in light of risks of terrorism. At the same time, we are witnessing a visible trend of political polarization across the countries. Therefore, there is a need to understand how risk perceptions have changed over time ideologically and demographically. This article provides a novel look into risk response over time while considering potential ideological links to the phenomenon. The analysis is based on four comparable population surveys collected between 2004 and 2017 (N = 7,775) in Finland. Findings showed that terrorism risk perception was highest in 2004 and declined during the 2010s despite multiple terrorist attacks in Western Europe. Terrorism risk perception became ideologically based in 2014 and 2017, and the decrease in terrorism was explained by the deepening of political polarization. Overall, the findings reflect the evolution of risk perception over time depending on values, attitudes and goals, here linked to political ideology. These findings help us to deepen our understanding of the significance of recent political movements and emerging parties affecting not only political systems but also the realignment of traditional parties.