Abstract
With the developing of high integrations in large scale systems, such as aircraft and other industrial systems, there are new challenges in safety analysis due to the complexity of the mission process and the more complicated coupling characteristic of multi-factors. Aiming at the evaluation of coupled factors as well as the risk of the mission, this paper proposes a combined technology based on the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) model and the Bayesian network (BN). After identifying and classifying the risk factors from the perspectives of humans, machines, the environment, and management, the DEMATEL technique is adopted to assess their direct and/or indirect coupling relationships to determine the importance and causality of each factor; moreover, the relationship matrix in the DEMATEL model is used to generate the BN model, including its parameterization. The inverse reasoning theory is then implemented to derive the probability, and the risk of the coupled factors is evaluated by an assessment model integrating the probability and severity. Furthermore, the key risk factors are identified based on the risk radar diagram and the Pareto rule to support the preventive measurements. Finally, an application of the take-off process of aircraft is provided to demonstrate the proposed method.
Highlights
The risk evaluation of coupled factors throughout the system mission process has received increasing attention in recent years due to its effectiveness in preventing hazards and ensuring system safety, which offers a potential application in safety risk analysis
This paper presents a combined technology based on the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) model and a Bayesian network, aiming at analyzing and evaluating the risk of factors considering the coupling relationship, so as to identify the key risk factors and high-risk regions
Aiming at the insufficiency of traditional safety risk analysis technology to solve the coupling problems between risk factors, this study proposes combined technology based on the DEMATEL
Summary
The risk evaluation of coupled factors throughout the system mission process has received increasing attention in recent years due to its effectiveness in preventing hazards and ensuring system safety, which offers a potential application in safety risk analysis. With the development of science and technology, a series of analysis methods for evaluating system failures and risk events has been developed, especially in high-risk fields such as aerospace, chemical, nuclear, and other industrial fields These methods have been found to be insufficient in a number of safety problems caused by the coupling characteristics in complex large scale systems. The. DEMATEL model can transform sophisticated systems into precise causal relationships in structure, so that the quantified extent of direct and/or indirect causality among coupled risk factors can be evaluated using matrix operations and mathematical theories to help find the core problem [32,33]. This paper presents a combined technology based on the DEMATEL model and a Bayesian network, aiming at analyzing and evaluating the risk of factors considering the coupling relationship, so as to identify the key risk factors and high-risk regions.
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