Risk Propagation Model and Simulation of Schedule Change in Construction Projects: A Complex Network Approach

Yusi Cheng,Lei Zhu,Wei Li,Jingfeng Yuan,Guangdong Wu

doi:10.1155/2020/8854609

Abstract

Construction schedules play an important role in construction project management. However, during construction activities, risks may arise due to unexpected schedule changes, resulting in the ineffective delivery of projects. This study aims to reveal the law of schedule change risk propagation and to analyze the effects on the risk propagation through numerical simulations. First, construction projects are represented by activity-on-node (AON) networks. A model of risk propagation is then built based on a susceptible-infected (SI) model considering the effects of the nodal characteristics on the propagation process. Next, the model is tested on a real-world project to examine cascading failures with varying parameters. The experimental results demonstrate that the model is effective in identifying the activities most capable of affecting a project schedule and evaluating the impact of schedule change risk propagation. This study will provide a basis for enhancing the robustness of AON networks and controlling the propagation of schedule change risks.

Highlights

A construction project is an organized process of constructing a building or structure under time, cost, and quality constraints [1]
E aim of the project was to deliver a high-rise complex in 800 days. e AON network is shown in Figure 4, with 803 nodes and 1388 directed edges
E effectiveness of the propagation model was analyzed for different values of the parameters. e initial values of the parameters chosen from reasonable ranges are listed in Table 2, and the ranges can be achieved from the following experiments

Summary

Introduction

A construction project is an organized process of constructing a building or structure under time, cost, and quality constraints [1]. Most scheduling tools use the activity-on-node (AON) representation and the critical path method (CPM) [8]. Based on an AON network, the CPM explores the critical activities and provides activity float times, which allows continuous monitoring of the schedule and provides alerts of the possibility of project delays. Construction projects are affected by risks, almost all of which are directly or indirectly related to the schedule of activities [2, 9]. Due to complex logical dependencies between activities in an AON network, a schedule change of one activity may affect its succeeding activities [10]. Is can cause issues such as disorganized planned resources [11], increased communication costs, and misunderstandings [12], which initiates change risk propagation throughout an AON network [8, 13]. Due to complex logical dependencies between activities in an AON network, a schedule change of one activity may affect its succeeding activities [10]. is can cause issues such as disorganized planned resources [11], increased communication costs, and misunderstandings [12], which initiates change risk propagation throughout an AON network [8, 13]. erefore, it is essential to explore the mechanism of risk propagation of schedule changes

Methods

Results

Conclusion