Risk Prediction of Central Nervous System Infection Secondary to Intraventricular Drainage in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Development and Evaluation of a New Predictive Model Nomogram

Abstract

BackgroundCurrently no reliable tools are available for predicting the risk of central nervous system (CNS) infections in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage after undergoing ventriculostomy drainage. The current study sought to develop and validate a nomogram to identify high-risk factors of CNS infection after ventriculomegaly drain placement for intracerebral hemorrhage.MethodsA total of 185 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage who underwent ventriculoperitoneal drainage were enrolled to the current study. Patients were divided into a CNS infection group (20 patients) and a non-CNS infection group (165 patients). The baseline data from both groups was used to develop and evaluate a model for predicting the likelihood of developing CNS infection after ventriculoperitoneal drain placement for intracerebral hemorrhage.ResultsThe finding showed that operative time, intraventricular drainage duration, postoperative temperature, white blood cell count in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), neutrophils ratio in CSF, Red blood cell count in CSF, and glucose content in CSF were correlated with CNS infection. A nomogram for predicting the risk of CNS infection was constructed based on these variables. The c-index and the AUC of the ROC curve was 0.961, showing good discrimination. Clinical decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram clinical application ranged between 1 and 100%. The clinical impact curve was generated to set with a threshold probability of 0.5.ConclusionThe nomogram reported in the current study can be used by clinicians to identify patients likely to have secondary CNS infections, so that clinicians can better treat these patients at earlier stages.