Risk prediction model of early-onset preeclampsia based on risk factors and routine laboratory indicators

Abstract

Background: 10% - 15% of maternal deaths are statistically attributable to preeclampsia. Compared with late-onset PE, the severity of early-onset PE remains greater harm, with higher morbidity and mortality. Objective: To establish an early-onset preeclampsia prediction model by clinical characteristics, risk factors and routine laboratory indicators from 6 to 10 gestational weeks of pregnant women. Methods: The clinical characteristics, risk factors and 38 routine laboratory indicators (6 - 10 weeks of gestation) including blood lipids, liver and kidney function, coagulation, blood count and other indicators of 91 early-onset preeclampsia patients and 709 normal controls without early-onset preeclampsia from January 2010 to May 2021 in Peking University Third Hospital (PUTH) were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression, Decision tree model and Support vector machine (SVM) model were applied for establishing prediction models, respectively. ROC curves were drawn, and the area under the curve (AUCROC), sensitivity and specificity was calculated and compared. Results: There were statistically significant differences in the rates of diabetes, Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS), kidney disease, Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSAHS), primipara, history of preeclampsia and Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) (p < 0.05). Among the 38 routine laboratory indicators, there were no significant differences in the levels of PLT/LYM, NEU/LYM, TT, D-Dimer, FDP, TBA, ALP, TP, ALB, GLB, UREA, Cr, P, Cystatin C, HDL- C, Apo-A1, and Lp(a) between the two groups (p > 0.05). The levels of the rest indicators were all statistically different between the two groups (p < 0.05). If only 12 risk factors of PE were analyzed by logistic regression, decision tree model, and the Support Vector Machine (SVM), the AUCROC were 0.78, 0.74 and 0.66 respectively, while 12 risk factors of PE and 38 routine laboratory indicators were analyzed by logistic regression, decision tree model and the support vector machine(SVM), the AUCROC were 0.86, 0.77 and 0.93 respectively. Conclusion: The efficacy of clinical risk factors alone in predicting early-onset preeclampsia is not high, while the efficacy increased significantly when PE risk factors were combined with routine laboratory indicators. The SVM model was better than the logistic regression model and decision tree model in the early prediction of early-onset preeclampsia incidence.