Risk prediction model based on blood biomarkers for predicting moderate to severe endoscopic activity in patients with ulcerative colitis.

Abstract

We explored developing an internal validation model to predict the moderate to severe endoscopic activity of ulcerative colitis (UC) patients based on non-invasive or minimally-invasive parameters. Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS) and Mayo endoscopic subscore were performed for UC patients who met the criteria from January 2017 to August 2021 through the electronic database of our center. Logistic regression and a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression model were performed to screen the risk factors of moderate to severe UC activity. The nomogram was established subsequently. Discrimination of the model was evaluated using the concordance index (c-index), and the calibration plot and 1,000 Bootstrap were used to evaluate the model's performance and conduct internal validation. Sixty-five UC patients were included in this study. According to UCEIS criteria,45 patients were moderate to severe endoscopic activity. 26 potential predictors of UC were analyzed by logistic and Lasso regression showed that vitamin D (Vit D), albumin (ALB), prealbumin (PAB), and fibrinogen (Fbg) were the best predictors of moderate to severe endoscopic activity of UC. We used these 4 variables to develop a dynamic nomogram prediction model. The c-index was 0.860, which means good discrimination. The calibration plot and Bootstrap analysis showed that the prediction model accurately distinguished the moderate to severe endoscopic activity in UC patients. The prediction model was verified using a cohort of UC patients with moderate to severe activity defined by the Mayo endoscopic subscore, and it was found that the model still had good discrimination and calibration (c-index = 0.891). The model containing Vit D, ALB, PAB, and Fbg was a good tool for evaluating UC activity. The model is simple, accessible, and user-friendly, which has broad application prospects in clinical practice.