Risk prediction for the thrombosis of permanent vascular access

Abstract

Aim: to improve surgical treatment results in patients with primary permanent vascular access. Materials and methods: the results of the treatment of 168 patients with native arteriovenous radiocephalic fistula were analyzed. The results of treatment within 1 year were tracked According to the observation results, patients were divided into 2 groups: the 1st group — patients who did not develop thrombosis of an arteriovenous fistula for 1 year of hemodialysis, and the 2nd group — patients who had vascular access due to thrombosis during the first year. Results: the factors with the greatest degree of influence on the risk of thrombosis during time periods up to 6 months and from 6 months to 1 year were identified. However, not all of them by their characteristics, satisfied the conditions for constructing a multidimensional logistic regression and a predictive model based on it. On the basis of the identified factors, prognostic models have been established that assess the risk of thrombosis of permanent vascular access at time intervals of up to 6 months and from 6 months to 1 year. Conclusion: the formation of a predictive model considering a variety of factors can give an answer to the risk of thrombosis formation and determine ways to reduce it.