Abstract
Pine wilt disease (PWD) has caused a huge damage to pine forests. PWD is mainly transmitted by jumping diffusion, affected by insect vectors and human activities. Since the results of climate change, pine wood nematode (PWN—Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) has begun invading the temperate zones and higher elevation area. In this situation, predicting the distribution of PWD is an important part of the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. The research established the Maxent model to conduct a multi-angle, fine-scale prediction on the risk distribution of PWD. We adjusted two parameters, regularization multiplier (RM) and feature combination (FC), to optimize the model. Influence factors were selected and divided into natural, landscape, and human variables, according to the physical characteristics and spread rules of PWD. The middle-suitability regions and high-suitability regions are distributed in a Y-shape, and divided the study area into three parts. The high-suitability areas are concentrated in the region with high temperature, low elevation, and intensive precipitation. Among the selected variables, natural factors still play the most important role in the distribution of the disease, and human factors and landscape factors are also worked well. The permutation importance of factors is different due to differences in climate and other conditions in different regions. The multi-angle, fine-scale model can help provide useful information for effective control and tactical management of PWD.
Highlights
Pines are coniferous trees of the Pinus genus with high economic value, playing an important role in soil and water conservation [1,2]
Natural factors and landscape factors, respectively, form two highly correlated variable groups, and two variable clusters with positive and negative correlations are formed in the two groups, respectively (Figure 2a)
The distribution of the high-suitability areas and the none-suitability areas are to the distributions of the temperature and elevation, and the high-suitability areassimilar are toconcentrated the distributions thewith temperature and elevation, and the and high-suitability areas are in the of areas high temperature, low elevations, intensive precipitaconcentrated in the areas with high low elevations, and Yiling intensive tion
Summary
Pines are coniferous trees of the Pinus genus with high economic value, playing an important role in soil and water conservation [1,2]. Pine wilt disease (PWD) is caused by the pine wood nematode (PWN—Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) and is a worldwide forest disease. The invasion of PWD has damaged the Chinese forest ecosystem, causing tree species conversion, wildlife habitat destruction, soil and water conservation, and biodiversity loss [7]. It seriously affects Chinese import and export trade [8]. PWD has become one of the most serious forest diseases in the world [9]
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