Risk Prediction After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Combined With Coronary Endarterectomy

Abstract

Coronary endarterectomy (CE) combined with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is used for complete revascularization of diffusely diseased coronary arteries. Nevertheless, studies reported an increased risk after this procedure. Therefore, risk prediction in these patients is essential. Patients who underwent CABG+CE during September 2008 and July 2022 at our center were retrospectively recruited. A total of 32 characteristics were analyzed. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used for the feature selection, and multivariable Cox regression was applied to develop a nomogram for risk prediction. The primary outcome was the major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), a composite of all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, repeat revascularization, and stroke. A total of 570 patients with 601 CE targets, including left anterior descending (41.4%), right coronary artery (43.9%), left circumflex artery (6.8%), and diagonal branches/intermedius ramidus (8.0%), were enrolled. The mean age was 61.0 ± 8.9years, and 77.7% were men. A total of 4 features were identified as the predictors of MACCE, including age ≥65years (hazard ratio [HR] 2.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38 to 3.25, p <0.001), left main disease (HR 2.56, 95% CI 1.46 to 4.49, p=0.001), mitral regurgitation (≥mild, HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.65, p=0.049), and left anterior descending endarterectomy (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.62, p=0.018), and a nomogram for the 1- and 3-year MACCE prediction was developed. The model showed relatively good discrimination (C-index 0.68), calibration, and clinical usefulness. In conclusion, the nomogram provides estimation of the 1- and 3-year MACCE risk after CABG+CE.