Risk perception–based post-seismic relief supply allocation in the Longmen Shan fault area: Case study of the 2013 Lushan earthquake

Abstract

ABSTRACTPost-seismic relief supply allocation based on psychological risk perception is an important yet understudied area in emergency management. This article develops a systematic approach to assist in post-seismic relief supply allocation in the Longmen Shan fault (LSF) area where many destructive earthquakes have occurred. First, to analyze the relief supply allocation system, a system dynamics (SD) model is built for the LSF area, which we then verify in a simulation of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. This simulation of an actual earthquake in the area allows for the verification of direct relief supply allocation information. Then, by applying the SD model to the 2013 Lushan earthquake, a decision tree focusing on the selection of appropriate decision-makers is proposed. In summary, the combination of the SD model and the decision tree can then be used to assist the government in carrying out post-seismic relief supply allocation when coping with the actual relief environment. Further, this systematic approach will be improved using other detailed factors from subsequent research on post-seismic relief supply allocation.