Risk perception when the tsunami arrived

Abstract

A cusp catastrophe model is proposed for the dynamics of risk perception and decision-making. The model is based primarily on the behaviour of spectators at the scene of the tsunami that struck Southeast Asia in December 2004, as depicted in eye-witness photographs. The theoretical model draws on models for the perception of ambiguous stimuli and approach-avoidance conflicts that were previously proposed. The dynamics of social comparison, persuasive arguments and information certainty are thought to contribute to the bifurcation parameter of the risk perception model. The decision-makers’ ability to interpret the visual cues is proposed as the asymmetry parameter.