Abstract
To promote the sustainable development and safety of bicycle traffic, survival analysis of the risk perception sensitivity of cyclists is proposed. The cumulative probability of survival serves as an index of risk perception sensitivity, and a Cox regression model is established. The proposed method is applied to middle school cyclists, and the factors of their risk perception are analyzed. Data are collected by questionnaire and traffic conflict survey and are quantified by factor analysis. The model results show that active and extroverted personality, negative peer influence, unsafe riding behavior intention, non-motor vehicle flow and speed, and a lack of separation facilities have negative correlations with risk perception sensitivity. Positive attitude towards traffic rules, good family education, heightened traffic safety awareness, motor vehicle flow and speed, pedestrian flow, and non-motorized lane width have positive correlations with risk perception sensitivity. The conflict type has no correlation with risk perception sensitivity. This study aims to improve the sensitivity of risk perception, prevent traffic conflicts and provide a theoretical basis for risk perception research on vulnerable traffic participants.
Highlights
Cycling is a clean and sustainable mode of transportation and an important part of a sustainable multimode urban traffic system [1,2,3,4,5,6]
When we analyze the specific impact of the four factors on the risk perception, namely, personality characteristics, external influences, traffic safety awareness and riding behaviors through the questionnaire survey, conversion of the 24 question items in the questionnaire into quantifiable indexes must not result in a lack of information about the factors; that is, the quantification of the cyclist factors is the focus of the following discussion
This paper proposes that survival analysis can be used to study cyclists’ risk perception due to a certain commonality between survival analysis and risk perception analysis
Summary
Cycling is a clean and sustainable mode of transportation and an important part of a sustainable multimode urban traffic system [1,2,3,4,5,6]. Most research on bicycle traffic safety focuses on the factors affecting bicycle use [10,11], the behavior of cyclists [12,13] and vehicle-bicycle conflicts [14,15,16]. The research results proposed infrastructure investments for specific groups to promote the development of cycling These studies indicate that the risk perception of cyclists is an important factor affecting the safety and development of bicycle traffic. The cumulative probability of survival is considered as the index of the risk perception sensitivity of cyclists, and a risk perception Cox regression model is established. To determine the covariates in the model, that is, the influencing factors of risk perception, middle school cyclists were considered as the research object to analyze their risk perception influencing factors. Basic data were obtained using questionnaires and traffic conflict surveys, and the factors were quantified to transform the data into a form that can be directly employed for modeling analysis
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