Risk perception and victim perception: The judgment of HIV cases

Abstract

There is a vast literature confirming that reactions to different risks are strongly affected by characteristics other than scientific risk estimates; most of this research has concentrated on mapping people's representations of sets of widely varying dangers (e.g. diseases, natural disasters, accidents). This study explored a potentially vital component of risk that cannot be studied by eliciting general reactions to many hazards: the extent to which who is at risk contributes to perceptions and judgments of a risk. While it may be preferable to assume that misfortunes affect the population uniformly, of course the truth is not so egalitarian. Thus, for both theoretical and policy reasons, it is worth exploring psychometrically representations of a particular risk as it affects different people. Using multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis, we constructed models of respondents' representations of a disease assumed to be particularly affected by victim perception: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Subjects rated the similarity of all possible pairs among 16 scenarios involving HIV infection; the scenarios contained information about both the victim and the method of contraction. A set of attribute scales as well as political/demographic information allowed us both to interpret the structures and to predict individual differences. The results confirmed that reactions to HIV infection are greatly affected by reactions to the victim. In particular, the perceived distastefulness and riskiness of the method of infection loomed larger than did either the overall likability of the victim or the general riskiness of the victim's behavior. Further, the salience of the most statistically influential dimension, ‘deservedness’, depended significantly on demographic and political characteristics of the respondents, suggesting that the relationship between personal values and risk perception is in part mediated by victim perception. Implications for risk perception work and public policy are discussed.