Risk perception and smoking behavior: Empirical evidence from Taiwan

Abstract

This article uses survey data obtained from Taiwan to investigate consumer perceptions of smoking risks and the linkage of these perceptions to smoking behavior. In our analysis, two equations are estimated: (1) risk perception, and (2) smoking probability. The simultaneity problem in estimating risk perception and smoking probability is also considered. Overall, the results indicate that the risk perceptions of cigarette smoking are substantially overestimated and that these risk perceptions in turn, have a significantly negative effect on smoking probability. Also, the results suggest that the determinants of risk perception are consistent with the predictions of a Bayesian learning framework.