Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.

Eduardo Massad,Marcos Amaku,Claudio José Struchiner,Raphael Ximenes,Giovanini Evelim Coelho,Luis Fernandez Lopez,Annelies Wilder-Smith,Marcelo Nascimento Burattini,Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho,Jarbas Barbosa Da Silva Jr

doi:10.1590/0074-0276140133

Abstract

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.

Highlights

Brazil will host the FIFA World CupTM, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities
Dengue virus (DENV)-1 predominated and in 2011 DENV-4 invaded the country such that, in 2013, the year with the highest dengue incidence reported so far, 95% of cases were due to DENV-1 and DENV-4
According to the Brazilian Ministry of Health, in the first 14 weeks of 2014, a reduction greater than 80% in the number of cases with respect to 2013 has been observed in the country (g1.globo.com/bemestar/noticia/2014/03/ casos-de-dengue-caem-80-no-1-bimestre-de-2014-dizministerio.html)

Summary

Introduction

Brazil will host the FIFA World CupTM, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. Estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the potential risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.

Results

Conclusion