Risk of recurrent stroke in Rotterdam between 1990 and 2020: a population-based cohort study.

Abstract

After an initial stroke, current clinical practice is aimed at preventing recurrent stroke. Thus far, population-based estimates on the risk of recurrent stroke remain scarce. Here we describe the risk of recurrent stroke in a population-based cohort study. We included Rotterdam Study participants who developed a first-ever incident stroke during follow-up between 1990 until 2020. During further follow-up, these participants were monitored for the occurrence of a recurrent stroke. We determined stroke subtypes based on clinical and imaging information. We calculated ten-year overall and sex-specific cumulative incidences of first recurrent stroke. To reflect changing secondary preventive strategies employed in recent decades, we then calculated the risk of recurrent stroke within ten-year epochs based on first-ever stroke date (1990-2000, 2000-2010 and 2010-2020). In total, 1701 participants (mean age 80.3 years, 59.8% women) from 14,163 community-living individuals suffered a first stroke between 1990 and 2020. Of these strokes, 1111 (65.3%) were ischaemic, 141 (8.3%) haemorrhagic, and 449 (26.4%) unspecified. During 6585.3 person-years of follow-up, 331 (19.5%) suffered a recurrent stroke, of which 178 (53.8%) were ischaemic, 34 (10.3%) haemorrhagic and 119 (36.0%) unspecified. Median time between first and recurrent stroke was 1.8 (interquartile range 0.5-4.6) years. Overall ten-year recurrence risk following first-ever stroke was 18.0% (95% CI 16.2%-19.8%), 19.3% (16.3%-22.3%) in men and 17.1% (14.8%-19.4%) in women. Recurrent stroke risk declined over time, with a ten-year risk of 21.4% (17.9%-24.9%) between 1990 and 2000 and 11.0% (8.3%-13.8%) between 2010 and2020. In this population-based study, almost one in five people with first-ever stroke suffered a recurrence within ten years of the initial stroke. Furthermore, recurrence risk declined between 2010 and2020. Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, EU's Horizon 2020 research programme and the Erasmus Medical Centre MRACE grant.